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World Series Game 5 Projections

November 1, 2010

One more. That’s all it takes. One more win. Seriously. The Giants are one win away from San Francisco’s first World Series victory. Alright, still not sure I believe it, but carrying on: It’s a rematch of Game 1 with the best of the best in Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee.

Player wOBA rv600 ePA   Player wOBA rv600 ePA
Andres Torres .362 18.5 4.67   Elvis Andrus .305 -15.2 4.67
Freddy Sanchez .335 3.3 4.56   Michael Young .348 5.73 4.56
Aubrey Huff .370 20.3 4.46   Josh Hamilton .388 23.07 4.46
Buster Posey .376 26.5 4.36   Vladimir Guerrero .362 13.22 4.36
Pat Burrell .343 4.6 4.25   Nelson Cruz .387 26.51 4.25
Cody Ross .331 0.8 4.14   Ian Kinsler .359 11.98 4.14
Juan Uribe .335 2.3 4.03   Daniel Murphy .354 9.04 4.03
Edgar Renteria .309 -11.8 3.98   Bengie Molina .302 -14.86 3.98
Aaron Rowand .318 -5.8 3.79   Mitch Moreland .358 14.6 3.79

wOBA – Weighted On Base Average

rv600 – Run Value (Above Average) per 600 PA

ePA – Expected PA per lineup slot in the NL

Expected Giants RPG: 4.776

Expected Rangers RPG: 4.968

The numbers for Lincecum and Lee have not changed of course.

  ERA FIP tRA IP
Tim Lincecum 2.91 2.79 3.12 6.7
C.J. Wilson 3.03 2.82 2.91 7.3

tRA comes from StatCorner.

Bullpens are a fickle thing, and trying to eliminate the inferior pitchers from each team, as well as adjusting for injuries and such would simply create more noise (and work!) than necessary. Instead, we’ll just finish off each starter’s expected line with the bullpen performance this season (again using tERA). The Giants sit at 3.46 with the Rangers at 3.97. However, when converting to the NL we get an adjusted tRA for the Rangers of 3.68.

  Starter IP Starter RA Bullpen IP Bullpen RA Total RA
Giants 6.7 2.32 2.6 0.88 3.20
Rangers 7.3 2.36 1.7 0.70 3.06

I exclude defense because of the volatility of it in a 7 game series (and simply one game in this scenario), especially with no huge difference between the two defenses.

Using the Odds Ratio combined with the pythagorean records from these expected numbers, we get these results:

Team eRS eRA x-W% % Victory
Giants 4.78 3.20 .675 46.16%
Rangers 4.97 3.06 .708 53.84%

 

Again, I’m changing home-field advantage adjustments. I completely undervalued the advantage by using the runs scored and allowed method. The issue isn’t just that the home team pitches and hits better, but rather, they play better altogether; runs, runs allowed and in the clutch and high leverage situations. Teams at home win more 1-run games than they lose. If you simply use the pythagorean formula to calculate expected home W% you get a team that wins around 53% of its home games. When in reality, the home team (this year, in both leagues), has a .5625 W%, or an extra 3.125% advantage. I’m simply going to apply these adjustments to the chance of victory and not go into expected final score, as there’s way too much noise there to predict (although I understand that it was just there for fun). As of now, extra work would have to be put into that with my limited information and resources.

Team x-W% xHF-W% % Victory
Giants .567 .567 38.93%
Rangers .572 .739 61.07%

 

This is by far the biggest mismatch on paper I’ve seen in this post-season. Homefield advantage, a great lineup, and Cliff Lee makes you damn good favorites, even when the opposing pitcher is Tim Lincecum. I think most people would agree that the Rangers have the advantage tonight. However, Lee struggled with his command in Game 1 so we’ll see what happens. That’s why they play the games. Hopefully the Giants upset tonight and play their last game of this amazing 2010 season.

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One Comment leave one →
  1. Duane permalink
    November 1, 2010 10:40 PM

    World
    Fucking
    Champs

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