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World Series Game 2 Projections

October 28, 2010

After a very surprising offensive explosion in the Lincecum v. Lee match-up in Game 1, the Giants look to head to Arlington with a 2-0 lead in the World Series. We don’t have a recap (yet), and I’m not sure if there will be a post dedicated to it. I’m sure you’re well aware of what happened though, being the World Series and all. I won’t go into detail, but rather just post the Win Probability Graph:

Rangers @ Giants - Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Tonight’s match-up will be Matt Cain taking on C.J. Wilson, and it sounds as though the lineups will be practically the same. There’s a possibility Matt Treanor catches rather than Bengie Molina, but that change would be very insignificant.

Player wOBA rv600 ePA   Player wOBA rv600 ePA
Andres Torres .362 18.5 4.8   Elvis Andrus .305 -15.2 4.8
Freddy Sanchez .335 3.3 4.68   Michael Young .348 5.73 4.68
Aubrey Huff .370 20.3 4.54   Josh Hamilton .388 23.07 4.54
Buster Posey .376 26.5 4.46   Vladimir Guerrero .362 13.22 4.46
Pat Burrell .343 4.6 4.34   Nelson Cruz .387 26.51 4.34
Cody Ross .331 0.8 4.23   Ian Kinsler .359 11.98 4.23
Juan Uribe .335 2.3 4.1   Bengie Molina .302 -14.86 4.1
Edgar Renteria .309 -11.8 3.98   Mitch Moreland .358 14.6 3.98
Pitcher .216 -59.3 3.86   Pitcher .216 -59.3 3.86

wOBA – Weighted On Base Average

rv600 – Run Value (Above Average) per 600 PA

ePA – Expected PA per lineup slot in the NL

Expected Giants RPG: 4.44

Expected Rangers RPG: 4.51

Here’s how the Matt Cain v. C.J. Wilson match-up looks:

  ERA FIP tRA IP
Matt Cain 3.21 3.80 3.94 6.8
C.J. Wilson 3.84 3.53 3.93 6.1

tRA comes from StatCorner.

Bullpens are a fickle thing, and trying to eliminate the inferior pitchers from each team, as well as adjusting for injuries and such would simply create more noise (and work!) than necessary. Instead, we’ll just finish off each starter’s expected line with the bullpen performance this season (again using tERA). The Giants sit at 3.46 with the Rangers at 3.97. However, when converting to the NL we get an adjusted tRA for the Rangers of 3.68.

  Starter IP Starter RA Bullpen IP Bullpen RA Total RA
Giants 6.8 2.98 2.2 0.85 3.83
Rangers 6.1 2.68 2.9 1.17 3.85

I exclude defense because of the volatility of it in a 7 game series (and simply one game in this scenario), especially with no huge difference between the two defenses.

Using the Odds Ratio combined with the pythagorean records from these expected numbers, we get these results:

Team eRS eRA x-W% % Victory
Giants 4.44 3.83 .567 49.52%
Rangers 4.51 3.85 .572 50.48%

 

Again, I’m changing home-field advantage adjustments. I completely undervalued the advantage by using the runs scored and allowed method. The issue isn’t just that the home team pitches and hits better, but rather, they play better altogether; runs, runs allowed and in the clutch and high leverage situations. Teams at home win more 1-run games than they lose. If you simply use the pythagorean formula to calculate expected home W% you get a team that wins around 53% of its home games. When in reality, the home team (this year, in both leagues), has a .5625 W%, or an extra 3.125% advantage. I’m simply going to apply these adjustments to the chance of victory and not go into expected final score, as there’s way too much noise there to predict (although I understand that it was just there for fun). As of now, extra work would have to be put into that with my limited information and resources.

Team x-W% xHF-W% % Victory
Giants .567 .598 55.88%
Rangers .572 .541 44.12%

 

Very similar to Game 1 in that two pitchers with almost identical expected performances (combined with very similar bullpens), and the advantage for the Rangers offense. And of course once again, in a neutral environment the expected result from this match-up would be virtually 50/50. However with the home-field advantage the Giants once again have odds hovering around 56%, a bit higher than yesterday’s 54% chance of victory. I’d say the Giants might even have a bigger advantage considering Matt Cain has historically out-performed his peripherals by over half a run – something that has been discussed a lot – especially at home. Going up 2-0 in this series would be tremendous for the Giants. And if it does happen, well, I’m not sure I’ll be able to contain myself for much longer.

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