World Series Game 1 Projections
So here we are, Game 1 of the World Series. It’s the first Fall Classic for the Rangers, and the Giants first return since 2002. Both cities are looking for their first baseball title. The trend continues for the Giants, as it is another fantastic pitching match-up: Tim Lincecum vs. Cliff Lee.
The projections for the World Series are a bit more different, as we have to adjust for league differences, mainly dealing with talent levels, the DH, and some minor issues such as average innings per start (due to not having to PH for pitchers in the AL). Onto the lineups:
|Andres Torres||.362||18.5||4.8||Elvis Andrus||.305||-15.2||4.8|
|Freddy Sanchez||.335||3.3||4.68||Michael Young||.348||5.73||4.68|
|Aubrey Huff||.370||20.3||4.54||Josh Hamilton||.388||23.07||4.54|
|Buster Posey||.376||26.5||4.46||Vladimir Guerrero||.362||13.22||4.46|
|Pat Burrell||.343||4.6||4.34||Nelson Cruz||.387||26.51||4.34|
|Cody Ross||.331||0.8||4.23||Ian Kinsler||.359||11.98||4.23|
|Juan Uribe||.335||2.3||4.1||Bengie Molina||.302||-14.86||4.1|
|Edgar Renteria||.309||-11.8||3.98||Mitch Moreland||.358||14.6||3.98|
wOBA – Weighted On Base Average
rv600 – Run Value (Above Average) per 600 PA
ePA – Expected PA per lineup slot in the NL
Expected Giants RPG: 4.44
Expected Rangers RPG: 4.51
As mentioned before, two of the best pitchers of the game face off in Lincecum and Lee.
tRA comes from StatCorner.
Bullpens are a fickle thing, and trying to eliminate the inferior pitchers from each team, as well as adjusting for injuries and such would simply create more noise (and work!) than necessary. Instead, we’ll just finish off each starter’s expected line with the bullpen performance this season (again using tERA). The Giants sit at 3.46 with the Rangers at 3.97. However, when converting to the NL we get an adjusted tRA for the Rangers of 3.68.
|Starter IP||Starter RA||Bullpen IP||Bullpen RA||Total RA|
I exclude defense because of the volatility of it in a 7 game series (and simply one game in this scenario), especially with no huge difference between the two defenses.
Using the Odds Ratio combined with the pythagorean records from these expected numbers, we get these results:
Again, I’m changing home-field advantage adjustments. I completely undervalued the advantage by using the runs scored and allowed method. The issue isn’t just that the home team pitches and hits better, but rather, they play better altogether; runs, runs allowed and in the clutch and high leverage situations. Teams at home win more 1-run games than they lose. If you simply use the pythagorean formula to calculate expected home W% you get a team that wins around 53% of its home games. When in reality, the home team (this year, in both leagues), has a .5625 W%, or an extra 3.125% advantage at. . I’m simply going to apply these adjustments to the chance of victory and not go into expected final score, as there’s way too much noise there to predict (although I understand that it was just there for fun). As of now, extra work would have to be put into that with my limited information and resources.
So there you have it, the Giants have a 54.16% of taking game one, despite the Rangers putting out better pitching and better offense (although neither by very much). That’s the benefit of home-field advantage. It’s very possible that this year’s All-Star Game will have an effect on the outcome of the World Series. We shall see, in the meantime, let the torture continue.