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NLCS Game 5 Projections: Phillies @ Giants

October 21, 2010

Torres, Sandoval and Uribe are back in the lineup, which makes me happy and bodes well for the projections for Game 5. Not sure about the Phillies lineup, as Francisco could play and Utley will probably hit 2nd again. It won’t make much of a difference though.

Player wOBA rv600 ePA   Player wOBA rv600 ePA
Andres Torres .362 18.5 4.8   Shane Victorino .351 11.2 4.8
Freddy Sanchez .335 3.3 4.68   Placido Polanco .335 2.4 4.68
Aubrey Huff .370 20.3 4.54   Chase Utley .385 29.1 4.54
Buster Posey .376 26.5 4.46   Ryan Howard .370 21.1 4.46
Pat Burrell .343 4.6 4.34   Jayson Werth .384 28.5 4.34
Cody Ross .331 0.8 4.23   Jimmy Rollins .328 -0.6 4.23
Pablo Sandoval .364 18.9 4.1   Raul Ibanez .361 17.1 4.1
Juan Uribe .335 2.3 3.98   Carlos Ruiz .343 5.6 3.98
Pitcher .216 -59.3 3.86   Pitcher .216 -59.3 3.86

wOBA – Weighted On Base Average

rv600 – Run Value (Above Average) per 600 PA

ePA – Expected PA per lineup slot in the NL

Expected Giants RPG: 4.65

Expected Phillies RPG: 4.79

The Game 5 starters are of course a re-match of Game 1, with the game taking place in San Francisco this time. Nothing of course changes when dealing with the pitchers talent levels.

  ERA FIP tRA IP
Tim Lincecum 2.91 2.79 3.12 6.7
Roy Halladay 2.64 3.03 3.21 7.5

tRA comes from StatCorner.

**Note that I didn’t adjust for Halladay’s ERA and FIP based on league, but rather only tRA (since that’s what we’re using here)**

Bullpens are a fickle thing, and trying to eliminate the inferior pitchers from each team, as well as adjusting for injuries and such would simply create more noise (and work!) than necessary. Instead, we’ll just finish off each starter’s expected line with the bullpen performance this season (again using tERA). The Giants sit at 3.46 with the Phillies at 3.93.

  Starter IP Starter RA Bullpen IP Bullpen RA Total RA
Giants 6.7 2.32 2.6 0.88 3.20
Phillies 7.5 2.68 1.5 0.65 3.56

I exclude defense because of the volatility of it in a 7 game series, especially with no huge difference between the two defenses.

Using the Odds Ratio combined with the pythagorean records from these expected numbers, we get these results:

Team eRS eRA x-W% % Victory
Giants 4.65 3.20 .665 53.35%
Phillies 4.79 3.56 .633 46.49%

 

Yep, the Lincecum-Halladay match-up is still in the Giants favor, nothing has changed there.

Here’s my method for factoring in home-field, which I implemented during the NLDS: Rather than applying the +5% in expected winning%, I’ll apply the expected runs scored and allowed to the NL runs scored averages in home ballparks, rather than the league average. By using runs scored and allowed rather than wins and losses, we of course get a more precise measurement of home-field advantages. This also gives me a way to predict a more accurate expected final score, which just makes this whole process more attractive. And on to the numbers:

NL Home Runs Per Game: 4.474

NL Road Runs Per Game: 4.175

NL Runs Per Game: 4.325

Here are the expected numbers when adjusting for home-field:

Team eRS eRA x-W% % Victory
Giants 4.72 3.13 .681 56.96%
Phillies 4.72 3.63 .617 43.04%

Expected Final Score: Giants 4.18, Phillies 3.925

So there you have it, the Giants are once again favorites to win this game. They’ve been favorites in games 1 and 4 so far, with the Phillies having the advantage in the two games in the middle. Hopefully once again my projections predict the future correctly, as if this series heads back to Philadelphia the Phillies will be favorites for both games. Biggest game of the year right here, so we’ll see if Lincecum and the Giants can send the Giants back to the World Series.

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