NLCS Game 2 Projections: Giants @ Phillies
|Andres Torres||.362||18.5||4.8||Shane Victorino||.351||11.2||4.8|
|Freddy Sanchez||.335||3.3||4.68||Placido Polanco||.335||2.4||4.68|
|Aubrey Huff||.370||20.3||4.54||Chase Utley||.385||29.1||4.54|
|Buster Posey||.376||26.5||4.46||Ryan Howard||.370||21.1||4.46|
|Pat Burrell||.343||4.6||4.34||Jayson Werth||.384||28.5||4.34|
|Juan Uribe||.335||2.3||4.23||Jimmy Rollins||.328||-0.6||4.23|
|Mike Fontenot||.334||2.7||4.1||Raul Ibanez||.361||17.1||4.1|
|Cody Ross||.331||0.8||3.98||Carlos Ruiz||.343||5.6||3.98|
wOBA – Weighted On Base Average
rv600 – Run Value (Above Average) per 600 PA
ePA – Expected PA per lineup slot in the NL
Expected Giants RPG: 4.55
Expected Phillies RPG: 4.79
The Game 2 starters will be Jonathan Sanchez taking on Roy Oswalt. Both Oswalt and Sanchez have pitched really well lately, and Sanchez has done well against the Phillies and their left-handed bats.
tRA comes from StatCorner.
Bullpens are a fickle thing, and trying to eliminate the inferior pitchers from each team, as well as adjusting for injuries and such would simply create more noise (and work!) than necessary. Instead, we’ll just finish off each starter’s expected line with the bullpen performance this season (again using tRA). The Giants sit at 3.46 with the Phillies at 3.93.
|Starter IP||Starter RA||Bullpen IP||Bullpen RA||Total RA|
I exclude defense because of the volatility of it in a 7 game series, especially with no huge difference between the two defenses.
Using the Odds Ratio combined with the pythagorean records from these expected numbers, we get these results:
Here’s my method for factoring in home-field, which I implemented during the NLDS: Rather than applying the +5% in expected winning%, I’ll apply the expected runs scored and allowed to the NL runs scored averages in home ballparks, rather than the league average. By using runs scored and allowed rather than wins and losses, we of course get a more precise measurement of home-field advantages. This also gives me a way to predict a more accurate expected final score, which just makes this whole process more attractive. And on to the numbers:
NL Home Runs Per Game: 4.474
NL Road Runs Per Game: 4.175
NL Runs Per Game: 4.325
Here are the expected numbers when adjusting for home-field:
Expected Final Score: Phillies 4.42, Giants 4.1
As expected, the odds aren’t in the Giants favor so much tonight. However, we’ll see what happens, as there’s still a very reasonable chance for victory, especially if Sanchez has his control.