Game 4 Projections: Giants @ Braves
The Giants look to advance to the NLCS today with a victory and face the Philadelphia Phillies. I’ve projected all three games so far, and to no surprise all of them have been decided by one run. We’ll look at Game 4 today. New pitchers of course, as well as lineup changes by both team.
|Andres Torres||.362||18.5||4.8||Omar Infante||.350||11.0||4.8|
|Freddy Sanchez||.335||3.3||4.68||Matt Diaz||.339||2.12||4.68|
|Aubrey Huff||.370||23.4||4.54||Derrek Lee||.371||22.0||4.54|
|Buster Posey||.376||26.5||4.46||Brian McCann||.378||25.7||4.46|
|Pat Burrell||.343||4.6||4.34||Alex Gonzalez||.311||-11.7||4.34|
|Juan Uribe||.335||2.3||4.23||Jason Heyward||.400||40.8||4.23|
|Pablo Sandoval||.325||2.65||4.1||Troy Glaus||.357||15.1||4.1|
|Cody Ross||.331||0.8||3.98||Rick Ankiel||.328||-1.0||3.98|
wOBA – Weighted On Base Average
rv600 – Run Value (Above Average) per 600 PA
ePA – Expected PA per lineup slot in the NL
Expected Giants RPG: 4.58
Expected Braves RPG: 4.77
Here we look at the Game 4 starters, Madison Bumgarner and Derek Lowe and again look at true-talent levels using tRA, however because of Madison Bumgarner being a rookie we’ll simply use FIP for him (I’ll put it in the tRA column).
tRA comes from StatCorner.
Bullpens are a fickle thing, and trying to eliminate the inferior pitchers from each team, as well as adjusting for injuries and such would simply create more noise than necessary. Instead, we’ll just finish off each starter’s expected line with the bullpen performance this season (again using tERA). The Giants sit at 3.46 with the Braves at 3.37.
|Starter IP||Starter RA||Bullpen IP||Bullpen RA||Total RA|
I excluded defense because after a few quick calculations, the difference between the two teams in any given game is less than 1/10th of a run; simply unnecessary noise.
Using the Odds Ratio combined with the pythagorean records from these expected numbers, we get these results:
Here’s my method for factoring in home-field, which I implemented for yesterday’s game: Rather than applying the +5% in expected winning%, I’ll apply the expected runs scored and allowed to the NL runs scored averages in home ballparks, rather than the league average. By using runs scored and allowed rather than wins and losses, we of course get a more precise measurement of home-field advantages. This also gives me a way to predict a more accurate expected final score, which just makes this whole process more attractive. And on to the numbers:
NL Home Runs Per Game: 4.474
NL Road Runs Per Game: 4.175
NL Runs Per Game: 4.325
Here are the expected numbers when adjusting for home-field:
Expected Final Score: Braves 4.44, Giants 4.19
Again the Braves are favorites, no surprise there with how evenly these teams are matched up. The big unknown factor is Bumgarner, as we don’t have the necessary data (in terms of sample size) to get a clear view on what he can do. His ERA has surpassed his peripherals so far, with a large part of that likely resulting from his flyball tendencies and pitching in AT&T (although he’s pitched much better on the road than at home), so who knows what to expect.
Hopefully the Giants can finish off the series tonight.