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Game 4 Projections: Giants @ Braves

October 10, 2010

The Giants look to advance to the NLCS today with a victory and face the Philadelphia Phillies. I’ve projected all three games so far, and to no surprise all of them have been decided by one run. We’ll look at Game 4 today. New pitchers of course, as well as lineup changes by both team.

Player wOBA rv600 ePA Player wOBA rv600 ePA
Andres Torres .362 18.5 4.8 Omar Infante .350 11.0 4.8
Freddy Sanchez .335 3.3 4.68 Matt Diaz .339 2.12 4.68
Aubrey Huff .370 23.4 4.54 Derrek Lee .371 22.0 4.54
Buster Posey .376 26.5 4.46 Brian McCann .378 25.7 4.46
Pat Burrell .343 4.6 4.34 Alex Gonzalez .311 -11.7 4.34
Juan Uribe .335 2.3 4.23 Jason Heyward .400 40.8 4.23
Pablo Sandoval .325 2.65 4.1 Troy Glaus .357 15.1 4.1
Cody Ross .331 0.8 3.98 Rick Ankiel .328 -1.0 3.98
Pitcher .228 -56.7 3.86 Pitcher .255 -43.7 3.86

wOBA – Weighted On Base Average

rv600 – Run Value (Above Average) per 600 PA

ePA – Expected PA per lineup slot in the NL

Expected Giants RPG: 4.58

Expected Braves RPG: 4.77

Here we look at the Game 4 starters, Madison Bumgarner and Derek Lowe and again look at true-talent levels using tRA, however because of Madison Bumgarner being a rookie we’ll simply use FIP for him (I’ll put it in the tRA column).

ERA FIP tRA IP
Madison Bumgarner 2.90 3.73 3.73 6.4
Derek Lowe 4.03 3.79 4.42 5.9

tRA comes from StatCorner.

Bullpens are a fickle thing, and trying to eliminate the inferior pitchers from each team, as well as adjusting for injuries and such would simply create more noise than necessary. Instead, we’ll just finish off each starter’s expected line with the bullpen performance this season (again using tERA). The Giants sit at 3.46 with the Braves at 3.37.

Starter IP Starter RA Bullpen IP Bullpen RA Total RA
Giants 6.4 2.65 2.6 1.0 3.65
Braves 5.9 2.90 3.1 1.16 4.06

I excluded defense because after a few quick calculations, the difference between the two teams in any given game is less than 1/10th of a run; simply unnecessary noise.

Using the Odds Ratio combined with the pythagorean records from these expected numbers, we get these results:

Team eRS eRA x-W% % Victory
Giants 4.58 3.65 .602 53.00%
Braves 4.77 4.06 .573 47.00%

 

Here’s my method for factoring in home-field, which I implemented for yesterday’s game: Rather than applying the +5% in expected winning%, I’ll apply the expected runs scored and allowed to the NL runs scored averages in home ballparks, rather than the league average. By using runs scored and allowed rather than wins and losses, we of course get a more precise measurement of home-field advantages. This also gives me a way to predict a more accurate expected final score, which just makes this whole process more attractive. And on to the numbers:

NL Home Runs Per Game: 4.474

NL Road Runs Per Game: 4.175

NL Runs Per Game: 4.325

Here are the expected numbers when adjusting for home-field:

Team eRS eRA x-W% % Victory
Giants 4.54 4.02 .570 44.78%
Braves 4.85 3.83 .592 55.22%

Expected Final Score: Braves 4.44, Giants 4.19

Again the Braves are favorites, no surprise there with how evenly these teams are matched up. The big unknown factor is Bumgarner, as we don’t have the necessary data (in terms of sample size) to get a clear view on what he can do. His ERA has surpassed his peripherals so far, with a large part of that likely resulting from his flyball tendencies and pitching in AT&T (although he’s pitched much better on the road than at home), so who knows what to expect.

Hopefully the Giants can finish off the series tonight.

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