Game 2 Projections: Braves @ Giants

Yesterday, I projected Game 1, and I have to say that I’m pleased with the results. We’ll look at Game 2 projections today (which I happen to be attending by the way!), with a couple changes. One lineup change for the Giants, different pitchers, as well as factoring in home-field advantage.

Player	wOBA	rv600	ePA		Player	wOBA	rv600	ePA
Andres Torres	.362	18.5	4.8		Omar Infante	.350	11.0	4.8
Freddy Sanchez	.335	3.3	4.68		Jason Heyward	.400	40.8	4.68
Aubrey Huff	.370	23.4	4.54		Derrek Lee	.371	22.0	4.54
Buster Posey	.376	26.5	4.46		Brian McCann	.378	25.7	4.46
Pat Burrell	.343	4.6	4.34		Alex Gonzalez	.311	-11.7	4.34
Juan Uribe	.335	2.3	4.23		Brooks Conrad	.320	-2.4	4.23
Pablo Sandoval	.364	18.9	4.1		Nate McLouth	.331	1.1	4.1
Cody Ross	.331	0.8	3.98		Rick Ankiel	.328	-1.0	3.98
Pitcher	.228	-56.7	3.86		Pitcher	.255	-43.7	3.86

wOBA – Weighted On Base Average

rv600 – Run Value (Above Average) per 600 PA

ePA – Expected PA per lineup slot in the NL

Expected Giants RPG: 4.69

Expected Braves RPG: 4.71

Here we look at the Game 2 starters, Matt Cain and Tommy Hanson and again look at true-talent levels using tRA:

	ERA	FIP	tRA	IP
Matt Cain	3.21	3.80	3.94	6.8
Tommy Hanson	3.13	3.39	3.69	6.0

tRA comes from StatCorner’s tRA.

Bullpens are a fickle thing, and trying to eliminate the inferior pitchers from each team, as well as adjusting for injuries and such would simply create more noise than necessary. Instead, we’ll just finish off each starter’s expected line with the bullpen performance this season (again using tERA). The Giants sit at 3.46 with the Braves at 3.37.

	Starter IP	Starter RA	Bullpen IP	Bullpen RA	Total RA
Giants	6.8	2.98	2.2	0.85	3.83
Braves	6.0	2.46	3.0	1.12	3.58

I excluded defense because after a few quick calculations, the difference between the two teams in any given game is less than 1/10th of a run; simply unnecessary noise.

Using the Odds Ratio combined with the pythagorean records from these expected numbers, we get these results:

Team	eRS	eRA	x-W%	% Victory	% Victory at AT&T
Giants	4.69	3.83	.592	46.86%	51.86%
Braves	4.71	3.58	.622	53.14%	48.14%

Expected Final Score: Braves 4.11, Giants 3.94

Yesterday I mentioned wanting to factor in home-field advantage, so I’m going to apply a blanket-adjustment based on the average home team the past three seasons. In the NL since 2008, the home team has won 55% of the time. So by taking that 5% improvement, we arrive at a 51.86% chance of a Giants victory in Game 2. As expected, the match-up is a lot closer in a Cain-Hanson game rather than the more advantageous Lincecum-Lowe one that we saw last night. As in most playoff games, this is a game that can likely go either way with two really good pitchers, two great bullpens, and two near identical lineups. The one advantage the Giants may have is that Matt Cain has consistently out-performed his peripherals – especially at home – so hopefully he can continue that trend in tonight’s game.

I expect another great, low-scoring affair regardless, with a side of torture.