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Game 2 Projections: Braves @ Giants

October 8, 2010

Yesterday, I projected Game 1, and I have to say that I’m pleased with the results. We’ll look at Game 2 projections today (which I happen to be attending by the way!), with a couple changes. One lineup change for the Giants, different pitchers, as well as factoring in home-field advantage.

Player wOBA rv600 ePA   Player wOBA rv600 ePA
Andres Torres .362 18.5 4.8   Omar Infante .350 11.0 4.8
Freddy Sanchez .335 3.3 4.68   Jason Heyward .400 40.8 4.68
Aubrey Huff .370 23.4 4.54   Derrek Lee .371 22.0 4.54
Buster Posey .376 26.5 4.46   Brian McCann .378 25.7 4.46
Pat Burrell .343 4.6 4.34   Alex Gonzalez .311 -11.7 4.34
Juan Uribe .335 2.3 4.23   Brooks Conrad .320 -2.4 4.23
Pablo Sandoval .364 18.9 4.1   Nate McLouth .331 1.1 4.1
Cody Ross .331 0.8 3.98   Rick Ankiel .328 -1.0 3.98
Pitcher .228 -56.7 3.86   Pitcher .255 -43.7 3.86

wOBA – Weighted On Base Average

rv600 – Run Value (Above Average) per 600 PA

ePA – Expected PA per lineup slot in the NL

Expected Giants RPG: 4.69

Expected Braves RPG: 4.71

Here we look at the Game 2 starters, Matt Cain and Tommy Hanson and again look at true-talent levels using tRA:

  ERA FIP tRA IP
Matt Cain 3.21 3.80 3.94 6.8
Tommy Hanson 3.13 3.39 3.69 6.0

tRA comes from StatCorner’s tRA.

Bullpens are a fickle thing, and trying to eliminate the inferior pitchers from each team, as well as adjusting for injuries and such would simply create more noise than necessary. Instead, we’ll just finish off each starter’s expected line with the bullpen performance this season (again using tERA). The Giants sit at 3.46 with the Braves at 3.37.

  Starter IP Starter RA Bullpen IP Bullpen RA Total RA
Giants 6.8 2.98 2.2 0.85 3.83
Braves 6.0 2.46 3.0 1.12 3.58

I excluded defense because after a few quick calculations, the difference between the two teams in any given game is less than 1/10th of a run; simply unnecessary noise.

Using the Odds Ratio combined with the pythagorean records from these expected numbers, we get these results:

Team eRS eRA x-W% % Victory % Victory at AT&T
Giants 4.69 3.83 .592 46.86% 51.86%
Braves 4.71 3.58 .622 53.14% 48.14%

Expected Final Score: Braves 4.11, Giants 3.94

Yesterday I mentioned wanting to factor in home-field advantage, so I’m going to apply a blanket-adjustment based on the average home team the past three seasons. In the NL since 2008, the home team has won 55% of the time. So by taking that 5% improvement, we arrive at a 51.86% chance of a Giants victory in Game 2. As expected, the match-up is a lot closer in a Cain-Hanson game rather than the more advantageous Lincecum-Lowe one that we saw last night. As in most playoff games, this is a game that can likely go either way with two really good pitchers, two great bullpens, and two near identical lineups. The one advantage the Giants may have is that Matt Cain has consistently out-performed his peripherals – especially at home – so hopefully he can continue that trend in tonight’s game.

I expect another great, low-scoring affair regardless, with a side of torture.

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4 Comments leave one →
  1. marcello permalink
    October 8, 2010 9:27 PM

    I hope it’s only a side of torture. Usually that’s the main course. Enjoy the torture first hand, I’m very envious!

  2. TheGig permalink*
    October 8, 2010 9:41 PM

    Yeah, I might just have been too optimistic last night. I’m sure I’ll be a nervous-wreck.

  3. October 9, 2010 7:11 PM

    Dude, your projections are scarily accurate!

  4. TheGig permalink*
    October 9, 2010 9:37 PM

    Heh, yeah. I just wish they would have been exactly accurate.

    Good sign though, I must be doing something right.

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