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Individual Win-Loss Records, 2002

May 3, 2010

A little while ago Tom Tango posted a method to convert an individual’s Win Probability statistics into an individual win-loss record.  This is pretty cool, since WPA matches up to a team’s actual win-loss record.  Since WPA tracks every single game state, think of it as literal value provided by the hitter or pitcher to his team’s record.  Positional difficulty and defense are obviously unaccounted for, and the model breaks when a player does exceptionally well.  I thought it would be fun to run this on the Giants’ 2002 World-Series team:

“Net Wins” are simply wins minus losses.  Barry Bonds (unsurprisingly) was the greatest contributor to the Giants’ success in the regular season, with Jeff Kent a distant second.  Off the top of my head, I never would have guessed Robb Nen would be the most valuable pitcher on the Giants- but there he is.  By the way, any discrepancies between “Net Wins” and W-L is due to rounding.  This is a pretty cool toy.

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