Who has Contributed to the Giants’ Offense the Most in 2010?
Although I typically detest absolute runs created on the individual level, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at how many runs each player on the Giants has contributed to the teams’ runs scored this season. So I’ve generated absolute linear weights for the Giants’ 2009 season up until April 27th. Granted, this analysis is a bit short-sighted, as situational hitting and baserunning (i.e. advancing from first to third, etc.) are not accounted for. So don’t take these figures as gospel. Perhaps a more logical approach is to use Win Probability Added, but 1) I prefer a more context-neutral approach (because these players have no control over their opportunities/lineup slot), and 2) I like to do things myself.
First things first, the marginal run values per event for both the Giants and the National League:
The Giants seem to get more of an offensive boost from batted balls but not nearly as much from walks. This makes sense, as they have the second lowest walk percentage in the National League (7.7%). Anyways, here’s the data:
LWTS_RC are the estimated runs contributed to the team, and “contribution” is the percentage of runs the player has contributed to the team’s totals. So far, Pablo’s a good 6.6% above runner-up Aubrey Huff, who has done pretty well thus far as a Giant. LWTS are, of course, runs above or below the average- in other words, we’re looking at the player’s ratio of runs created to outs made. Pablo takes the lead at +7.4 runs above the average Giant, with Nate Schierholtz following at +3.9. Eli Whiteside is off to a good start, with +2.9 runs. And for all this hullabaloo about John Bowker not hitting well, Mark DeRosa isn’t helping the team much right now either.
It is important to recognize, of course, that we’re dealing with very small sample sizes. That said, we cannot extrapolate the Giants’ current runs scored to a full season- no matter how tempting it may be. Players get in to slumps, players get hot, trades occur, players get injured, and so on and so forth. It is very encouraging, however, to see Pablo doing so well. He’s currently walking more than he’s striking out, and he’s well on pace for another 40+ doubles campaign. It’d be nice to see him hit a few more dingers, of course, but he’s currently on pace for well over 200 hits.