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Thoughts on the Freddy Sanchez Trade

July 31, 2009
by

When I heard that the Giants acquired Freddy Sanchez, I was excited. Then when I read that the Giants traded SP Tim Alderson, I panicked. Then I got pissed. Then I became slightly sad. Then I thought “this is the Sabean we know and hate.” Then I calmed down a bit, and thought about it reasonably. I’m going to break down Freddy Sanchez’s value, Tim Alderson’s value, and some recent scouting on Alderson.

To start with Sanchez, he has about $2.25 million left on his contract for 2009, plus an $8 million option that will most likely be exercised. For measuring his performance, I’m going to be extremely conservative and undervalue what I’ll think he’ll do. I’ll say 1 WAR for the rest of 2009, and 3 WAR for 2010. I could easily see a 1.75 and 3.5-4 WAR instead, depending on if he’s healthy and has no steep decline. Using the former, he’ll be worth a net value of about $13 million, and could range anywhere from about $10 to $20 million.

For Tim Alderson, using THT’s prospect value system, Alderson would be worth about $16 million. However, in a chat with Keith Law, he mentioned that “he’d be back end of a top 100 at best” now, as well as mentioning that “one scout I talked to who saw him in July said he wrote him up as a 5th starter.” If his value really is that of the bottom of the top 100, then his value is anywhere from $7 to $10 million.

With the failure rate of pitching prospects, and hearing that Alderson’s best case scenario right now is a #5 SP, I’ll gladly take the trade for a end of the rotation prospect for a top 10 2B in all of baseball, especially considering that the Giants have arguably the worst 2B production in baseball. Another thing to consider is the possibility of Sanchez being a Type A or Type B Free Agent. If the Giants were to get even Type B compensation, chalk up Sanchez’s value up for another few million, and with the way the Giants have been drafting of late, I’m very comfortable with that scenario.

Good work, Sabes.

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