National League Power Rankings Through All-Star Break
So the All-Star Break has arrived, and aside from the frustrating All-Star snub of Pablo Sandoval, Matt Cain’s injury keeping him out of the All-Star Game, Randy Johnson’s injury landing him on the DL, and Barry Zito – well yeah – it’s been one of the best seasons so far for Giants fans in about 5 years. We’re experiencing the emergence of three young stars, witnessed a 300 game-winner, a no-hitter and of course, own the 3rd best record in the NL 10 games over .500. There’s always talk through the sabermetric community whether or not a team is overachieving or playing better than their record indicates. With a few days off, it’s time to look into that.
Here are my National League Power Rankings based on 2nd-order wins through pythagorean expectation:
W, L and W% – Actual Win-Loss record.
RS, RA and W1% – Actual Runs Scored and Runs Allowed, accompanied with 1st order win percentage.
wRC, eRA, and W2% – Weighted Runs Created and expected RA based off of Statcorner’s wOBA* and tRA, and FanGraphs UZR, accompanied with 2nd order win percentage.
Any pythagorean record is calculated by (RS^1.81)/(RS^1.81+RA^1.81).
However, for 2nd order win Percentage, we will use PythagenPat which is more accurate. It uses a floating exponent rather than 1.81:
(RS^x)/(RS^X+RA^x) where X=RPG (RA and RS)
Power Rankings are sorted by 2nd order Win Percentage.
Major underachievers: Atlanta, Arizona, Pittsburgh and Washington (that’s good to hear)
Major overachievers: None really, some overachieving by the Giants and Phillies is all, but not enough to definitively say so.
Some power rankings out there have listed the Giants as overachievers, which is certainly possible. But with so many different methods of evaluating the many facets of baseball, they all must be looked at equally. This team has also been increasing month by month with increased offensive performance, as well as improved defense in Schierholtz and Uribe. It will definitely be an interesting 2nd half, and the Wild Card battle with the Rockies will probably be a good one.