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A Quick Announcement

February 11, 2011

If you got excited, I apologize for the misleading title.  I’m working full-time now in addition to finishing up my undergraduate work- so I haven’t had much time for, well, really anything.  There’s a possibility that I’ll be able to put up a post sometime next week, but I’m not sure just how good those chances are.  I’ve got a bit of a project going that I intend on posting at THT Live that should spark some discussion, and something on the Giants I’d like to do- so you’ll hopefully see that sooner rather than later.

Since I hate putting up posts that have little to no content to them, I thought I’d post a little early Christmas wishlist for FanGraphs (I originally posted this in a thread in their forums):

Some (hopefully) realistic wishes, some probably unrealistic:

1. Use empirical run values for LW; not approximated ones in which the values are held constant from one another. Have the league wOBA set to .330 for every year- it’s far easier to interpret, and it’s a very easy fix.

2. Situational hitting data- knowing how often the player makes productive outs or avoids double plays is really useful. It really makes things more “complete.”

3. Regress UZR. MGL himself has been saying this for quite some time.

4. IF the funds are available, purchase data from STATS and generate sUZR figures to work in tandem with bUZR for fielding values. It’s expensive as heck, though.

5. No more FIP in WAR. If we’re looking for theoretical accuracy, we want to take the pitcher’s batted ball distribution into account. I’d recommend a BsR-derived version of tRA…no linear equations.

6. A baserunning metric incorporating hit location would be wonderful.

7. A first baseman’s “scoop” opportunities. Otherwise, the “scoops” data doesn’t have much meaning to it.

8. A pony would be nice.

I love FanGraphs, but with all the changes BP is bringing to its site to enhance its metrics I’d like to see FG do the same. Some of the stuff on my wishlist is asking a bit much- situational hitting, sUZR (especially that), scoops, and baserunning runs- but the other stuff, I think, should be relatively easy changes.

It sounds like they’ll be implementing one of them- guess which one that is?  Any ideas for other changes?

If I get a bit of down time, I’ll explain why I think FG would benefit from some of these “fixes” down in the comments.

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3 Comments leave one →
  1. giantsrainman permalink
    February 12, 2011 5:03 PM

    After your writeup of FIP/xFIP why would you want to go to another flawed batted ball data algorithm like tRA (I assume this is just tERA with unearned runs added)? Until a Batted Ball Aalgorithm is created that can actually account for the ability of some pitchers to control their HR/FB rates using any of the existing ones would be less accurate (not more accurate) then continuing to use FIP.

    • triplesalley permalink*
      February 12, 2011 6:24 PM

      Good question. The answer is consistency. If FanGraphs is going to go balls to the wall with UZR in their value calculations, it makes sense to use something relatively similar for their pitcher calculations. If they’re going to make a multitude of adjustments for hitters, they should do the same for pitchers. And unless I’m mistaken, tERA simply park adjusts the HR/FB rather than regress it completely.

      In my perfect world, they’d use the pitcher’s GB/FB ratio (IOW, lump LD and FB together). But I thought asking for a simple switch from a linear to a dynamic equation (which the creator himself fully agrees with) wouldn’t be asking for too much. By including some batted ball tendencies, you’re likely going to have a modest improvement in theoretical accuracy.

  2. Darren permalink
    February 15, 2011 6:24 PM

    BTW This is a great site.

    Let me add a couple:

    a) Replace the Catcher Fielding in WAR from Dewans whatever to Total Zone.
    b) Replace Fielding in WAR to an average of UZR, Dewans, and a simple Zone Rating (as I have seen on this site).
    c) Amend the DH positional adjustment back to -22, and stop adding back the 5 runs associated with ‘difficulty coming off the bench to hit’

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